ALASKA MISSILE DEFENSE EARLY BIRD WEEKLY

U.S. CONTINUING WITH MISSILE DEFENSE: WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE ABM TREATY A FEW DAYS AWAY, U.S. OFFICIALS INTEND TO INTENSIFY DEVELOPING A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM, CBS, Sunday, June 9, 2002. Citing national security, the Bush administration plans to keep key information about its anti-ballistic missile program secret, according to the Los Angeles Times. Critics charge that the move is meant to stifle public debate over the program. As Bob Orr reports, the expiration of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty clears the way for more comprehensive tests at a new and more remote facility. BOB ORR: This latest test of America’s missile defense system did what it was supposed to. This says the military shows that the technology can work. And now with the end of the ABM treaty, they say they can make the so-called Star Wars missile defense shield a reality. LT. GEN. RONALD KADISH [Director, Missile Defense Agency]: So we’re really at a crossroads now. And the treaty no longer exists; we are making new progress with our technology. So some big decisions will be on the horizon here over the next weeks and months and years. ORR: The ABM Treaty banned tests the Pentagon feels are critically needed. Space-based devices and ships equipped with advanced radar systems to track targets. Now the restraints are off, and missile defense opponents are skeptical. SEN. CARL LEVIN [D-MI]: Even if you can spend the hundreds of billions of dollars that it would take to get it to work, is it easily defeated with a decoy? And the answer is it is probably quite easily defeated with a decoy. ORR: Over the next weeks, a new test facility will spring to life at Fort Greeley, Alaska. There will be underground silos for defensive missiles and beefed-up radar systems. KADISH: It is a lot like building an airplane. You know, you want to build a test airplane first. Work out the bugs, and then put the passengers on it. ORR: In this case, the passengers are the devises to explode incoming warheads. Despite concern from opponents, Gen. Kadish says the standoff between India and Pakistan, makes a good case for a missile defense. KADISH: It should concern all of us when you have sides that might be willing to use those weapons for the first time in history beyond the Second World War. So if our concepts of deterrence then are challenged, especially on a limited basis, then we have to rethink what we should do if deterrence fails. And that is where acting missile defense can play a role. ORR: Missile defense is far from being operational. Fort Greeley won’t be active until 2005 at the earliest, and that is just a test facility. The real thing with ground-based missiles and systems up in space is many, many years away.

MAKE MISSILE DEFENSE HAPPEN, Washington Times, June 12, 2002. On Friday, the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty will formally be consigned to the dustbin of history. Thanks to the vision, leadership and deftness of President George W. Bush and his national security team, this transforming event has been achieved without appreciable diplomatic upset or, to date, effective congressional opposition. The challenge Mr. Bush and his subordinates thus face is threefold: (1) The president must direct the most urgent possible deployment of complementary antimissile weapons that will augment the capabilities of the Alaska ground-based system and offset some of its inherent weaknesses. (2) For such presidential direction to be actualized, however, the administration must ensure that the people charged with executing it fully share Mr. Bush's commitment to defend the American people, their forces overseas and allies against missile attack…. (3) Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should now take steps to ensure that bureaucrats in his own acquisition organization do not achieve through red tape and other machinations the hamstringing of Mr. Bush's effort to end our vulnerability to missile attack.

LANDMARK ARMS TREATY DIES THURSDAY, LEAVING MOURNERS AS WELL AS CELEBRANTS WITH U.S.-ABM TREATY-GLANCE, U.S.-NUKE HISTORY-CHRONOLOGY, Associated Press, June 12, 2002. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, long the centerpiece of nuclear equilibrium between the United States and the Soviet Union and a strong deterrent to other nations with nuclear aspirations, is being officially put to rest. Barring last-minute court intervention, the 1972 ABM treaty expires Thursday. Not gravediggers' shovels, but those of construction workers and Pentagon officials will mark the passing of the treaty at a ceremony Saturday in Delta Junction, Alaska, breaking ground on a test site for the administration's $64 billion national missile defense system. There also are many mourners, among them U.S. allies, lawmakers and arms-control advocates. Until recently, NATO foreign ministers had described the ABM Treaty as the "cornerstone of strategic stability," and many Europeans still support it. President Richard M. Nixon signed the ABM treaty with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev in the Kremlin in May 1972, Nixon recalled. "The ABM Treaty stopped what inevitably would have become a defensive arms race," Nixon wrote in his memoirs. "The other major effect ... was to make permanent the concept of deterrence through 'mutual terror."' The concept was that both countries had enough missiles to destroy each other many times over, with or without a missile-defense system. Any attack by one thus would amount to joint suicide. Arms-control activist, Jonathan Schell of the Nation Institute, warns of "a whole chain of further consequences" to scrapping the treaty. This includes putting pressure on China to increase its nuclear arsenal.

GLOBAL NEWS BREAKS #15

MONDAY, JUNE 10, 2002

EXITING ABM WITHOUT A BANG, Washington Times, June 10, 2002. Excuse me, but where's the outrage? Here we are, officially leaving the confines of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and hardly a peep can be heard from the arms-control crowd. For years, they warned us not to withdraw. They assured us that a document binding two nations to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) made the world safer. Sure, the Russians complained (sort of) when President Bush announced in December that the United States would be withdrawing in six months. But it's clear now that the Kremlin produced these muted theatrics solely for the benefit of hard-liners at home. Russia's actions tell the real story: Russian President Vladimir Putin just signed an agreement with President Bush to slash our respective nuclear arsenals and signed up to become a junior member of NATO. The ABM Treaty has no place in such a world. President Reagan's determination to build a missile shield that the Soviets knew they couldn't afford to match did as much to bring about the Soviet Union's demise as any Vaclav Havel speech. When Soviet President Mikhael Gorbachev concluded President Reagan wouldn't be deterred, he ordered the leader of Hungary to open his border to Austria. This meant those who suffered most under the Soviets' iron fist were free — and that dictatorial regimes had to begin respecting human rights or watch their citizens flee to the West. Now we can finally develop the kind of robust missile-defense program the ABM Treaty prohibited.

SERGEI IVANOV: RUSSIA AND NATO MAY CREATE A COMMON NON-STRATEGIC ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM, Agency WPS, June 10, 2002. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said in Brussels that it is not ruled out that Russia and NATO will create a common non-strategic anti-missile system. According to him, experts from Russia and NATO will have to continue consultations regarding a series of topical issues, including evaluation of missile threats. Ivanov thinks Russia and the alliance might prepare proposals regarding a conception for building an anti-missile defense system as a result of these consultations, and conduct computer modeling and a command-staff exercise.

PENTAGON EYES ADDITIONS TO ANTI-MISSILE ARSENAL, Aviation Week & Space Technology, June 10, 2002. Although Congress last year drastically scaled back a Pentagon project to develop a space-based laser, the Pentagon is reinvigorating the concept in the hope of having a limited operational capability as early as 2008. The technology trust is one of several new efforts the military is considering for boost-phase intercept. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) also is exploring whether to tweak its sea-based midcourse defense system to handle new missions and to field an operational capability soon. A key decision point on whether to adjust the Navy project is the intercept flight test scheduled for this week, according to industry officials. The revived space-based laser program would be much more aggressive than earlier plans, which only called for an in-orbit experiment around 2012. The Pentagon hopes to field a rudimentary capability around 2008-10 with increasing sophistication added in subsequent years, according to the Air Force.

MISSILE DATA TO BE KEPT SECRET, Los Angeles Times, June 9, 2002. The Bush administration will now keep secret key information on its missile defense program, a blow to opponents who have relied on such data to challenge the technology as error-prone and not ready for deployment. Administration officials said they will withhold the data to prevent U.S. adversaries from gaining secrets about hardware intended to shield the nation from nuclear attack. Critics of the program, say the move is an attempt to stifle criticism and allow the administration to control the debate on the system's future. "They're attempting to avoid the usual oversight by Congress, the media...and the larger scientific community," said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services subcommittee that oversees the project. "There's an attitude of 'we know best, don't bother us.'" Five months ago, Rumsfeld gave the Missile Defense Agency unusual managerial autonomy and removed procurement procedures that usually ensure new weapon programs remain on track and within budget. Administration officials believe these unusual measures are needed to swiftly carry out a program that is urgently needed because of the growing missile threat from countries such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq. Under the new policy, the Pentagon will continue to give a week's public notice before tests and announce whether the tests were successful. In earlier tests, officials have described the size, shape, composition and deployment time of decoys. But in the next test, due in early August, officials may describe them only as "balloons" or "plastic replicas," said Air Force Lt. Col. Rick Lehner, a spokesman. "That's probably about as specific as we'll go." He said the agency intends to disclose as much information as it can and to keep Congress abreast of developments.

MDA TASKS BOEING TO DEVELOP SEA-BASED RADAR FOR MISSILE DEFENSE, Defense Daily, June 10, 2002. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) intends to modify a contract with Boeing [BA] to develop a sea-based test X-band radar to support the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) program, program officials said. Currently, Boeing is providing the development and initial components of the GMD program under its lead systems integrator contract. The planned sea-based X-band radar is required to support the expanded test operations of the GMD component of the Ballistic Missile Defense System Test Bed, MDA said.

TUESDAY, JUNE 11, 2002

U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS DEPENDENT ON DESTRUCTIVE WEAPON DISTRIBUTION, Associated Press Worldstream, June 11, 2002. The future relationship between the United States and Russia depends on whether Moscow stops providing Iran and other "rogue" states with technology that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction, a senior U.S. State Department official said Monday. Russia possesses nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and the ballistic missiles to deliver them "and over the years has pursued policies that have led, and continue to lead in our judgment, to the proliferation of these weapons," said Undersecretary of State John Bolton. He said Monday's announcement that an American citizen has been accused of conspiring with al-Qaida terrorists to detonate a radioactive "dirty" bomb in the United States highlighted the critical importance of uniting the war against terrorism and the campaign to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - and the need for full Russian support. Fusing these two campaigns "is and will remain a very high priority for the (U.S.) administration to make sure that states ... don't have the capability to blackmail us or even worse to use these weapons," Bolton told a luncheon meeting of B'nai B'rith International's Council on United Nations Affairs. U.S. officials are concerned at Moscow's apparent transfer of militarily useful technology to Iran, which along with Iraq and North Korea have been designated by President George W. Bush as an "axis of evil" linked to terrorists.

MISSILE DEFENSE AFTER THE ABM TREATY, The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2002. During his campaign for the presidency, George W. Bush promised to "build effective missile defenses, based on the best available options, at the earliest possible date." Bush took major steps to follow through on this pledge during his first year in office. He increased spending on missile defense substantially; directed the Pentagon to explore a broader array of antimissile technologies; and, most significantly, terminated U.S. participation in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. The horrific events of September 11 hastened, if not caused, a major shift in Russian policy toward the United States generally and toward missile defense specifically. The attack also quieted, for the time being at least, domestic critics of missile defense. Although Bush's commitment to proceeding with missile defense development is beyond doubt, his precise plans remain unclear. This ambiguity is attributable not to a lack of forthrightness but rather to the immaturity of missile defense technology. On May 1, 2001, Bush outlined his vision for missile defense, emphasizing his commitment to protect the country against long-range missile attack but suggesting that his administration was of two minds on the goal of missile defense, designed to shoot down the handful of long-range missiles that so-called rogue states might acquire. At other times, however, Bush hinted that he wanted defenses capable of doing much more than intercepting a few Iraqi or North Korean missiles. Officials have said occasionally that their goals are modest. Much of the time, however, the administration seems to favor ambitious long-range missile defenses. The Pentagon provided few specifics about potential deployments. By a conservative estimate, however, the budget request suggests that the administration ultimately plans to deploy a fairly large defense. A key question is whether those spending increases will actually occur. If they do, missile defense will be less likely to compete with other defense programs as well as other homeland security programs for funding. Yet, national security spending could also fall well short of what Bush proposes, especially in FY 2004 and beyond, either because the federal budget slips deep into deficit as it did during the 1980s and much of the 1990s or because the absence of new terrorist attacks saps public and congressional support for greater defense spending. Consequently, missile defense could find itself competing against other defense priorities. In the short term, however, robust spending on missile defense is assured. Most of the FY 2003 funds will be spent on research and development. How much might building the more robust defenses that the administration seems to envision cost? Neither the Pentagon nor the White House has offered an estimate -- a reasonable response, given that they have made no final decisions about what the system would look like.

AIR FORCE COULD OPT TO ACCELERATE SBIRS HIGH SATELLITES, Defense Daily, June 11, 2002. Pentagon acquisition chief Pete Aldridge gave the Air Force an okay to accelerate the schedule for developing the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) High program if technically and financially possible. In a May 2 acquisition decision memorandum (ADM), Aldridge directed the Air Force to rebaseline the program and gave the government larger involvement in the program oversight. Lockheed Martin [LMT] and Northrop Grumman [NOC] are the prime contractors for the program. At that time, Aldridge also released $42 million in termination liability funding for the program. The Air Force, Aldridge directed in the ADM, shall rebaseline the SBIRS High schedule for Geosynchronous Earth Orbit satellites one and two and for the procurement of satellites three through five. "However, the Air Force is authorized to accelerate the schedule for these satellites if technically feasible, within the resources made available by the OSD cost estimate," Aldridge added. That rebaselined plan must be delivered to the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) before the end of the summer and an update on program status is due to Aldridge by Jan. 30, 2003. The contractors have indicated in the past that the program could be accelerated with added dollars. In addition, the Air Force in July must submit a rebaselined acquisition strategy and a new selected acquisition report on the program to OSD. SBIRS High, among five other programs, had been at risk of cancellation under the provisions of the 1982 Nunn-McCurdy Amendment, which states that program unit cost increases of greater than 25 percent require DoD certification to continue. Aldridge put Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman on notice, saying they are now "in the spotlight" to perform. And, if in another six months of additional cost or technical problems surface, Aldridge said he would not hesitate to "pull the plug" on the program. SBIRS High is planned to replace the TRW [TRW] Defense Support Program satellites now in operation.

RUMSFELD SAYS IRAQ HAS CHEMICAL ARMS READY, The New York Times, June 11, 2002. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said today that Iraq had already prepared chemical weapons for attack and was developing nuclear and biological arms. He rejected President Saddam Hussein's denials by telling hundreds of cheering American sailors and marines tonight that Mr. Hussein is "a world-class liar." In Kuwait this morning, Mr. Rumsfeld described the American assessment of Iraq's program for weapons of mass destruction. "They have them, and they continue to develop them, and they have weaponized chemical weapons," he declared, adding that Iraq used chemical weapons in the 1980's against its own Kurdish population. "They've had an active program to develop nuclear weapons. It's also clear that they are actively developing biological weapons. I don't know what other kinds of weapons would fall under the rubric of weapons of mass destruction, but if there are more, I suspect they're working on them, as well."

MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY CONTRACT, Department of Defense. The Computer Sciences Corp., El Segundo, Calif., and Moorestown, N.J., is being awarded a cost-plus-award-fee contract modification for continued scientific and engineering technical assistance support to the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense Joint Program Office. The continued effort is estimated at $43,000,000. The principal place of performance will be in Arlington and Fairfax, Va., and will continue through November 2002. Contract funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Missile Defense Agency is the contracting

activity (HQ0006-00-C-0008).

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 12, 2002

SEA-BASED FLIGHT MISSION, Press Advisory from the United States Department of Defense. The Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Navy are scheduled to conduct a Sea-Based Midcourse Defense (SMD) Flight Mission 3 (FM-3) test on Thursday, June 13. The test will involve firing of a developmental Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) from the Aegis guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie, and the launch of an Aries ballistic missile target from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii. The test launch window is scheduled to open at 9:21 p.m. EDT and stay open for four hours. Equipped with the Aegis Lightweight Exo-Atmospheric Projectile Intercept computer programs and equipment, USS Lake Erie will track the Aries ballistic missile with the Aegis AN/SPY-1 radar. After a fire control solution is developed, the ship will launch the newly developed SM-3 against the Aries target. This test will be the first SMD intercept attempt of the ballistic missile target by the SM-3's kinetic warhead.

LAWMAKERS SUE OVER ABM PACT WITHDRAWAL LAWSUIT SEEKS TO ASSERT CONGRESS’S ROLE IN TREATIES, Washington Post, June 12, 2002. Thirty-one members of Congress sued the Bush administration in federal court yesterday, charging that President Bush violated the Constitution when he decided earlier this year to drop a 30-year-old nuclear weapons pact with Russia. The 12-page lawsuit asks a federal judge to order President Bush to stop plans for the U.S. withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia, which is scheduled to take effect tomorrow. The suit follows last week's unsuccessful attempt by Democrats in Congress who wanted to challenge the Bush decision through legislation. That plan failed in the House, 254-169. In December, Bush gave Russia notice that he wanted to pull out of the treaty, saying he wanted the United States to be free to respond to nuclear threats from terrorists or rogue nations. The treaty requires six months' notice for any party to withdraw.

SECRECY ON MISSILE DEFENSE GROWS, PENTAGON SHELVES TIMETABLES, COST ESTIMATES; CRITICS SAY OVERSIGHT IMPERILED, Washington Post, June 12, 2002. As the Pentagon boosts spending and intensifies development of a national antimissile system, it is also taking steps to shield the program from Congress and the public as well as traditional oversight measures within the Defense Department. In recent months, defense officials have exempted missile defense projects from the planning and reporting requirements normally applied to major acquisition programs. They have stopped providing Congress with detailed cost estimates and timetables for antimissile systems. And they have announced plans to restrict information about targets and decoys used in flight tests of the most advanced option under development, the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense. The moves come against the formal demise Thursday of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, allowing the United States for the first time in 30 years to pursue a nationwide antimissile system -- and to do so by whatever means it wishes. Driving home the point, Pentagon officials plan to break ground in Alaska on Saturday for six interceptor missile silos at Fort Greely, about 80 miles southeast of Fairbanks.

LEVIN QUESTIONS MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY’S CLASSIFICATION POLICY, Inside Missile Defense, June 12, 2002. Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said this week he would do everything he can to make public information regarding the Bush administration's national missile defense flights tests after the administration decided last month to classify the targets and decoys used in those tests. "There may be reasons that they should be classified, maybe, but I don't know that there are," Levin told reporters during a June 10 breakfast. Levin, a vocal opponent of the administration's national missile defense philosophy, said classifying the targets and countermeasures used in the program's flight tests is indicative of the administration's penchant for "keeping things close to the vest." Last month, the defense newsletter Defense Daily reported that the Missile Defense Agency will apply the new classification rules starting with the next flight test of the ground-based NMD system. That test, labeled Integrated Flight Test-9, is scheduled for late July. In mid-April, an MDA spokesman told Inside Missile Defense that the agency would use the same three countermeasures for IFT-9 as was used in IFT-8 -- one large balloon called decoy 2 and two small balloons called decoys 3 and 4. Levin said he is not advocating the release of classified material.

ISRAELI OFFICIAL PREDICTS EVENTUAL PROCUREMENT OF PAC-3, Defense Daily, June 12, 2002. The Israeli military eventually will purchase the Lockheed Martin [LMT] Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile if the United States is willing to sell it, an Israeli government official said yesterday. The official spoke at a breakfast sponsored by the National Defense University Foundation, but would not agree to be quoted by name. While there are no firm plans or even preliminary requests for Israel to buy PAC-3, the official said it is his opinion this will happen eventually. <